The far leg is priced with Black-Scholes assuming your IV holds at the near expiration. Profit and breakeven move with IV; only the net debit is exact. The modelled loss can exceed the debit for Puts.
At this IV the debit is larger than the far leg's remaining value at the short strike — the trade has no profitable zone. Lower the debit or raise the IV assumption.
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Best guess — modeled at the near expiration, valuing the longer-dated leg with Black-Scholes and assuming the implied volatility above holds. A two-expiration estimate, not a prediction; it ignores volatility skew, early assignment and dividends. Real outcomes will differ.
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