Kelly Criterion Simulator

Your edge

Each run is one random sequence consistent with your win rate. Re-roll a few times to see the range — Full Kelly varies far more than Quarter.

Your Kelly stake

Sizing Position Stake Contracts
Full
Half
One-Third
Quarter

Position is the share of the account each bet risks; Stake is that in dollars; Contracts is your actual order size — stake ÷ your average loss. It is not how many losses you can survive: at Full Kelly, one losing trade loses about the whole stake.

This run

Record: (actual )

Sizing Stake Ending Return Max DD
Full
Half
One-Third
Quarter

"Stake" is the percent of the account risked per round. "Max DD" is the worst peak-to-trough drawdown during the run — the number that decides whether you could actually stomach the sizing.

Trade by trade

# Outcome Roll Full Half One-Third Quarter

"Roll" is a random number (0 – 1). Above 0.500 = Win; at or below = Loss — always, regardless of win rate. All four sizings face the exact same sequence of rolls.

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