Options Probability Calculator

Inputs

Leave the rate at 0 for a pure-volatility read (the expected-move convention). For a true probability of profit, set the target to your breakeven, not the strike.

Probabilities

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In the money
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Short of target
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Touches the target before expiry
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Finish above
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Finish below
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Target distance
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Model probabilities from the implied volatility you entered — not a forecast. Real markets have fatter tails, so big moves happen more often than this implies.

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